Dutch Probation Service suspends OXREC risk algorithm over discrimination findings
The Dutch Probation Service halted the OXREC AI tool after an official investigation revealed a 20% error rate and biased risk assessments, caused by outdated Swedish data and swapped formulas.
The system relied on outdated data and swapped formulas, leading to biased risk predictions.
Key facts
- What
- The Dutch Probation Service halted the OXREC AI tool after an official investigation revealed a 20% error rate and biased risk assessments, caused by outdated Swedish data and swapped formulas.
- Incident date
- Feb 12, 2026
- Who
- Dutch Probation Service (Reclassering Nederland)
- Failure mode
- Policy Violation
- AI surface
- Algorithmic Decision
- Severity
- High
What happened
The Dutch Probation Service suspended the OXREC AI tool after an official investigation found it produced inaccurate and discriminatory recidivism risk evaluations. The system was used in approximately 44,000 cases annually to advise judges and prosecutors on sentencing and release. Inspectors found that the tool frequently underestimated the likelihood of re-offending, potentially endangering public safety.
What broke inside the model
- 01 · TriggerA prompt pushes against a deployment boundary.
- 02 · Model stepThe model produces the disallowed output.
- 03 · Control gapNo enforcement blocks it at generation time.
- 04 · FailureThe output crosses the policy line.
- 05 · ConsequenceA limit the business set is breached in public.
The output crosses a policy boundary the deployment had defined.
The failure was driven by implementation errors where formulas for prisoners and suspects were swapped and the model relied on outdated Swedish prison data that did not reflect the Dutch population. Additionally, the system failed to properly account for drug use and severe psychological problems in its risk calculations.
What it cost
Sources
- Reader-SubmittedOECD AI Incidentsoecd.ai
- PressProbation service used error-ridden algorithms to assess risksdutchnews.nl
- PressProbation algorithm may be discriminatory, often underestimates chance of reoffendingnltimes.nl
Cite this entry
https://failureindex.ai/failures/dutch-probation-service-suspends-discriminatory-oxrecAI Failure Index. "Dutch Probation Service suspends OXREC risk algorithm over discrimination findings" (FI-0314). Realm Labs. https://failureindex.ai/failures/dutch-probation-service-suspends-discriminatory-oxrec (indexed Jun 8, 2026).Data fields CC-BY 4.0, prose citation permitted. Incident ID FI-0314. Full dataset at /data.
Note from Realm Labs, the Index steward
How Realm fits
- Prism
- OmniGuard
This entry sits in the index's predictive wing: a system that scores, ranks, perceives, or steers rather than generates. Realm's runtime layer is built for the generative and agentic systems now moving into these same decision seats, where it watches a model's internal state and holds an unsupported claim or an unchecked action before it commits. The control gap on this record, an automated decision that reached people with no runtime check in front of it, is the same gap. The index keeps predictive failures on the record because the pattern carries straight into the systems shipping today.